Metropolitan Tales

Mets Minors Review Volume 1

Jeffrey Paternostro — Thu, 24 May 2012 15:00:27 +0000

Agenda:

1. Week in Review

- Is Matt Harvey Ready?

- How excited should you be about Jack Leathersich

2. A Report from Binghamton/New Britain

- Slightly less bold Jefry Marte predictions

- 49 Pitches with Collin McHugh

3. Matt den Dekker vs. Kirk Nieuwenhuis

4. The 2013 Affiliate Shuffle

5. Josh Satin Watch

—-

I should have an RSS feed for ITUNES, you know, when I figure out how to do that. Until then, enjoy it in crappy Quicktime.

Mets Minors Review Volume 1

Someday the City Will be Ours

Jeffrey Paternostro — Mon, 14 May 2012 23:01:05 +0000

I watched the final day of the Premier League season on Sunday with our man Catsmeat at my favorite English ex-pat bar in Brooklyn. I got there about a half hour before they officially opened and sat down near a Man City fan that had been up since 5 AM. He couldn’t sleep.

The bar filled up quickly, and I ended up positioned in between the City and United fans, since I wanted a decent view of both games. In hindsight, that might not have been the best place to be.

The City fans had to outnumber the United faithful by close to 10 to 1 (which is an odd quirk, since the owner is a Tottenham supporter, and more generally you would just expect to see more Man U fans) There was Zak who came in full face paint and an Adam Johnson kit for some reason. Justin who wore a “Why Always Me” shirt and was just a bit too young to remember 1968.

What happened has been all over the news, and if you didn’t see it live, well, it was even more amazing than the highlights showed. The slowly creeping soul-crushing agony of the first 90 minutes, followed by pure joy, utter chaos. Probably on facebook somewhere now is a photo of me, slumped over, head in hands, stunned into disbelief while a sea of blue celebrates behind me.

Afterwards I watched grown men weeping at the bar (in between shots of Jameson, naturally). I saw a City fan flipping off a United fan* right in his face while calling him a cunt, and then five minutes later saw them hugging, (while calling each other cunts). People bought shots for me and soon I ended up in group photos with City faithful as the weird, token Wednesday fan or something. Zak ran out into 4th ave. traffic in the middle of the day, waving his scarf and chanting at passing cars. I think he said he had a 3 PM kickoff for a local club match. I have no idea if he ever made it there, or if he changed into proper footwear or just played in his checkerboard VANS.

That first City fan from 9:30 in the morning, whose name has sadly retreated into the fog of Boddington’s and whiskey couldn’t stop chanting “You sign Phil Jones, we sign Kun Aguero!” He was born into the agony of being a Man City fan, and spent his whole life waiting for this day. He said to me “This is the way we had to do it. I wouldn’t trade any of it.” (or something like that, sobriety was a speck on the horizon at this point) It was a fabulous day to be a neutral. It was indescribably better to be a City fan.

Why do I tell you this?

Well, to be frank, City is the Mets. The parallels are obvious and have been covered by others. The inescapable little brother mentality, the somewhat tortuous recent history. Both teams had great success in the late sixties and early seventies and were shitty in the mid-nieties.

And someday the Mets will win the World Series again. Maybe they won’t be able to pull off the equivalent of beating the Phillies in 7, then the Yankees in 7 to do it, (while almost blowing it half a dozen times)** but it will happen. And I will be the crazy dude in the Josh Satin jersey and checkerboard VANS. Just try to keep me out of traffic.

The Yankees can keep their bazillion world series titles and their arrogance, both deserved and undeserved. Give me one day like Sunday. Let’s Go Mets!

* Have to say, the Man U fan was incredibly classy about the whole thing, and he easily could have killed the City fan. I think someone said he used to play for Blackpool, and he certainly was built like a center back.

**Then again, it’s the Mets, so…

Metropolitan Tales #10

Jeffrey Paternostro — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 04:13:39 +0000

What could force me to finally make time to record another podcast? Someone ranked Dillon Gee over Jeurys Familia on a list on the internet, you say? I’m on it! Patrick Flood of Patrick Flood Blog joins me to discuss his 2014 Mets Power Rankings as I continue my to talk about anything but the 2012 Mets. We discuss extensions for Ike Davis and Jon Niese, whether or not Daniel Murphy is a second baseman, and just how many wins Mets pitchers are getting for pitching in front of that defense. And of course at the end I pour one out for Josh Satin’s time on the 40-man roster. Hail Satin, ya’ll.

Metropolitan Tales #10

A Tale of Two Lefties

Jeffrey Paternostro — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 02:01:27 +0000

One of the prospects I am most looking forward to seeing in person this year is Darin Gorski.

Okay, I suppose that should be obvious.

I am a little annoyed I probably won’t get to see him opening weekend in Bingo, but with the murderer’s row of Wheeler, Harvey and Familia ahead of him, I’m not going to complain too vociferously. But he’s certainly a much more unknown quantity from a prospect perspective than those three. By now, we’ve all ogled his 2011 line in the Florida State League with its sexy sub-3 FIP and strikeout rate of over a batter an inning. While a 23 year old’s stat line in St. Lucie probably can’t qualify as #SABRporn, Gorski’s 2011 season was certainly a fair bit nicer than the Sears catalog.

Despite being classified as org filler coming into the season, Gorski’s breakout year rocketed him onto and up prospect lists in a still somewhat thin Mets system. I ranked him at #16 on my Top 40 list, and most other pundits had him in the same range. John Sickels ranked him #15, Kevin Goldstein, #14, and Toby Hyde #13. Only Rob Castellano had him lower than me, at #19. But basically, the difference between #13 and #19 in this (and most) systems is fairly negligible. You are looking at a C+ prospect with back of the rotation upside. Kind of like Gorski’s 2010 Savannah rotation mate, Mark Cohoon.

Cohoon dropped off of just about everybody’s list this year, and with good reason. His finesse-reliant arsenal was merely serviceable in Binghamton, and then was shelled in Buffalo. Now Cohoon was rushed up to AAA as triage for the decimated Bisons rotation, but even in the Eastern League there were signs that advanced hitters were starting to figure him out. It’s also worth noting that Cohoon is basically the same age as Gorski and was the far superior pitcher in the South Atlantic League in 2010. Coming into this past season he was that same back-end of the Top 20, C+ type prospect that Darin Gorski is now. They are both lefties with good change-ups and lacking plus fastballs. So is Darin Gorski the next Mark Cohoon?

Possibly.

Yeah, yeah, I am hedging, so let’s examine both sides of the argument.

Darin Gorski is quite possibly the next Mark Cohoon

1. The thing about finesse guys is you generally don’t know if they are actually prospects until they pass the AA test. And really, even that doesn’t make them a sure thing to have a major league career (/pours one out for Yusmeiro Petit). The average A-ball hitter is quite susceptible to good secondary stuff, and much more likely to chase offspeed stuff out of the zone, so the command and control guys can still dominate. That advantage starts to erode at AA, and those upper 80s fastballs start to be a lot more hittable. This forces the finesse guy to nibble, walk and flyball rates go up, K rates go down. This is basically what happened to Cohoon in the upper minors last year. There’s reason to think it will happen to Gorski as well, and he already leans towards being a flyball pitcher.

2. Gorski’s statistical season in the FSL isn’t quite as impressive when you put it in context. Keep in mind, Gorski and Cohoon were drafted a year apart, and started at the same level in 2009 (Brooklyn) and 2010 (Savannah). Cohoon outpitched Gorski at both levels. Imagine that Cohoon hadn’t skipped St. Lucie and gone right to Binghamton in the 2nd half of 2010. Now imagine, like Gorski, he spent all of 2011 in the Florida State League. I think it’s reasonable to assume he would have logged a similar performance, though the shape of the peripherals probably would have been a bit different.

3. There are a couple other concerns with Gorski’s 2011 performance, things that we might be overlooking. He was good in the second half of the season, but not quite as good as he was in the first half. I am willing to chalk this up to fatigue, as it was a small innings jump, and he had to transition back to being a full-time starter in-season. More worrying is the flyball rate, which I have a feeling is going to lead to a home run spike this year in Binghamton, even if there is no underlying change in Gorski’s skill set. I think it also points to an averageish fastball.

Darin Gorski is not going to be the next Mark Cohoon, instead, will be awesome

1. His fastball is better. Now, it’s not a lot better, but there is a significant difference between sitting 86-88 and sitting 88-90. There is some dispute as to whether Gorski is sitting around 90 or only touching 90, but the scouting reports do seem to agree that his fastball is a tick faster than Cohoon’s. That can be the difference between having Ted Lilly’s career versus having Bruce Chen’s.

2. The change-up is better. Now, Cohoon’s is good; I would even say it profiles as a potentially above average MLB pitch. Gorski’s change-up is rated as the best in the system. For both pitchers, it is their best pitch, but Gorski’s is a little better. A little bit better fastball and a little bit better change-up can exponentially increase an arsenal’s effectiveness. Gorski is still going to have the same caveats that any prospect whose best pitch is a change-up will have, but a lefty with a plus change-up usually has an MLB floor.

3. Darin Gorski in 2011 was not the same pitcher as Darin Gorski in 2010. Argument #2 above is predicated on the idea that Gorski and Cohoon are still the same pitchers they were in 2010. Clearly, Gorski put some things together this year. His fastball command improved along with the velocity uptick, and he has said elsewhere that his mechanics have gotten more consistent. He is a measurably better pitcher than he was in 2010, and we should expect him to be better at the upper minors than Cohoon was because of that.

Verdict

I could see Gorski struggling some at AA this year. He doesn’t really have swing and miss stuff or keep the ball on the ground. NYSEG Stadium is a bit of a hitter’s park as well. In the long run, though, he will be fine, and I imagine after a consolidation season in 2012 he will be roughly in that 15-20 range again next year, and ready to compete for a rotation spot some time in 2013. It’s not impossible he ends up in the pen long term if the slider lags behind the change, but as a big-bodied lefty with a good change-up, I like his chances of being a useable MLB arm one way or the other.

Jose Reyes vs. Frank Francisco

Jeffrey Paternostro — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 02:45:36 +0000

From Joe Sheehan’s E-Mail Newsletter yesterday (which I highly recommend, especially if you enjoyed his old Prospectus Daily column):

“One way to look at the Mets’ offseason is to give them a pass, note that they don’t have much money to spend for reasons baseball and otherwise, and acknowledge that they’re doing the best they can with what they have.

The other way is this:

– 2012 salary, Jose Reyes: $10,000,000

– 2012 salary, Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Ronny Cedeno: $10,150,000

Reyes took a backloaded contract with the Marlins. I can’t tell you that he would have accepted that from the Mets. I can tell you that the Mets’ decision to not trade Reyes at the deadline reflected a desire to sign him (and an incredible naivete about what not trading him would do for their chance of doing so), and that if they had any intention at all of bringing him back, they clearly could have put something like that on the table. The Mets, instead, watched Reyes walk away and spent more than what he’ll make on two relievers and a bad replacement shortstop. Yes, it would have required a commitment of $100 million or more across future years, but the Mets will also have tens of millions coming off the books after 2013, and signing Reyes would have had an impact on the revenue side of the equation.”

I should point out that Sheehan was on the Mets all last year to trade Reyes and wrote several times that not trading him would have a negligible effect on their ability to resign him. He certainly appears to have been right in that regard. That said, it is kind of disingenuous to equate the above signings and then just sort of handwave the 100 million Reyes is due from 2013-2018. Rauch may be a bust, Francisco may be a below average closer and Cedeno may just be a caddy for Daniel Murphy at the keystone, but after 2012, the three of them are due only another 6 million. You have to think that the Mets finances impair their ability to go nine figures with anybody right now, no matter how much is coming off the books the next couple seasons.

Sheehan does makes one very good point, which is this:

“The first rule of free agency is that you spend on the stars, not the middle class. One of the primary rules of sabermetrics is that you don’t pay for relievers, you find them.”

It might have been too much to ask Sandy Alderson to predict that the bottom would fall out of the reliever market shortly after his signing binge. Sure, I’d rather have Ryan Madson for 1/8 than Frankie Frank for 2/12, but even after the Phillies’ deal fell through, you’d have to imagine Madson would get at least 2/20 from someone. But, for example, Michael Wuertz is still available. Yes, the arm might be shot, but so might be Rauch’s. Wuertz won’t cost 3 million this year. Hong Chi Kuo signed with the Mariners in February for an incentive laden 1 million dollar deal. Now Kuo might not have wanted to leave the west coast, but it seems like every year there are always relief arms worth compiling on minor league deals with NRIs right before Spring Training.

Frankly, I’d bet the best pen arm the Mets picked up this offseason was Ramon Ramirez, who cost less than Rauch as an Arb3 player and was acquired as part of the Pagan/Torres swap. That’s the way you build a bullpen. That and collecting the Bobby Parnells and Pedro Beatos of the world. Would the Mets have been better off passing on Rauch and using a 40 man slot to pick up, say, Diego Moreno in the Rule V? I think so.

I do think Francisco will be good this year. He’ll probably give the Mets something like 80% of K-Rod for less than half of what they were paying K-Rod. That said, does an 80 win team really need a 6 million dollar closer? Yes, the Mets pen was pretty wretched last year, but even with the 12 million they have spent on their three new bullpen arms, there is no guarentee they will be better this year. The performance of any pitcher over 60 or so innings is awfully hard to predict. And Rauch and Francisco are likely on the downside of their careers at this point. I generally assume some asymmetry of knowledge and Alderson and co. probably have plenty of information on Rauch that I don’t, but it still seems like a high risk, low reward move regardless.

The Cedeno move is even more puzzling. All offseason we heard about how the Mets needed a back-up shortstop on the roster, but if Tejada plays 150 games next year, you can live with Justin Turner at SS for the other 12. If Tejada gets hurt, well, Ronny Cedeno isn’t exactly a huge long term upgrade over Omar Quintanilla, but only one required a major leage deal. The move also makes Turner kind of redundant, as Cedeno will likely get the bulk of the caddying work at 2b. That leaves Turner as a 1b/3b guy, where his bat is severely stretched. Yes, Turner is a -15 SS probably, but if he is playing there more than once every other week, you have bigger problems.

It also means your bench is Scott Hairston and three guys that don’t hit for power or draw walks. If only the Mets had a four corners right-handed bat with some pop, if only.

Metropolitan Tales #9

Jeffrey Paternostro — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 22:44:58 +0000

Back to the previewing the 2012 Mets. And by back, yes I know I haven’t done one in four months, and the subject of the first one (Angel Pagan) is on the Giants now. I will soldier on for the listeners, though. We move over towards the late, lamented Mo’s Zone and right field to discuss Lucas Duda with Fangraphs and Amazin Avenue’s Eno Sarris. Eno has interviewed Duda a few times now and thinks his shyness is overstated. We talk about whether or not he’s a good breakout candidate in 2012, and spend some time discussing the newfound depth of the Mets farm system. Then it’s Top Chef time and Eno has to go.

Metropolitan Tales #9

Metropolitan Tales Podcast #8

Jeffrey Paternostro — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 23:22:29 +0000

Yes, I’m back, but I’m not talking about the offseason, or that player in that ugly uniform. No, we’ll get to all that eventually, but in this edition Amazin Avenue’s Matthew Callan joins me to talk the 1999 Mets and why they have gotten the short shrift from the awards voters, the HoF voters, and just history in general. On tap: Lots of Edgardo Alfonzo talk, a discussion of the Hall of Fame cases for Robin Ventura and John Olerud, and a debate about what hat Mike Piazza will wear into Cooperstown.

Metropolitan Tales #8

Top 40 Summary and Some Thoughts on the New 40 Man Roster

Jeffrey Paternostro — Sat, 19 Nov 2011 01:07:44 +0000

So now that I have finished my 2012 Prospect List, I thought I would give some brief thoughts on the system as a whole. The system has definitely improved from last year. The 2011 draft was a successful one for the Mets, as they got two potential impact players in Nimmo and Fulmer, and added some interesting prep players in Evans, Budgell, Gsellman and Montgomery. I guess you can throw Tuschak in there as well, though he is really, really raw. Overall, I would say the system is average. It lacks a clear elite Top 50 prospect, though I would rate both Wheeler and Harvey in that 50ish range. Familia is a Top 100 guy for me, and while I wouldn’t put Nimmo in that range, some no doubt will. There is some decent depth in the C+ guys as well. Still, only 8 players rank as a B- or higher for me, which isn’t great.

Another issue is the system is also tilted very much towards the pitching side. Not that I will complain about having 5 power arms witha #3 ceiling or higher, but the organization lacks impact bats in the short or medium term. Nimmo could be that bat, but he is far away and far from a sure thing. The potential major league bats the Mets do have either have injury/performance issues (Puello, Flores, Havens) or are lower ceiling prospects (Nieuwenhuis, Lagares, Valdespin). The system is especially thin up the middle, and is basically barren at catcher and shortstop. They could also use a left-handed arm that is better than Darin Gorski, and I love Darin Gorski. Juan Urbina could be that guy, I suppose, but he is also a ways away.

Looking towards 2013 (a popular Mets fan activity right about now), the Mets are unlikely to graduate any of their top five. I expect, barring injury or regression, that we will see both Harvey and Familia at some point in 2012, even if it is just in September, but I don’t see either using up their rookie eligibility. This system will probably be even better next Fall, but it will take another season or two to build it up to even Yankee levels, let alone have it mentioned in the same breath with the truly elite farm systems.

—-

So the Mets announced their 40 man additions today. No big surprises, but I will go through them one by one.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis: An obvious pick. He probably would already be on it if he hadn’t gotten hurt. Absolutely would have been picked if he was left exposed. Could make the 2012 Mets out of Spring Training, but I am guessing he is the heir apparent in RF after the Mets give up on Bay (and move Duda to LF).

Juan Lagares: Kind of had to after his strong season/AFL performance. Don’t think we will see him this year, but this is the type of guy that gets drafted in the Rule 5, as he has enough speed/glove to stick as a 5th OF on a 2nd division team.

Wilmer Flores: Now, he’s clearly not ready for The Show, but again, he’s the type of high upside player that gets drafted in the Rule 5 by a team that can hide him for a year.

Cesar Puello: See Flores

Reese Havens: Again, no surprise. If healthy, he could stick on a major league roster, so the Mets had to protect him. Alderson likes him as well, mentioning him as an underrated Mets prospect when he spoke at BPro/SABR day.

Robert Carson: I said on twitter that I thought they would protect one of Carson/Holt/McHugh, and I am not particularly surprised it was Carson. Lefties that throw over 90 are aways useful, and Carson has a decent slider to boot. Bullpen arms are always in high demand in the Rule 5.

(Somehow I forgot Jeurys Familia when I posted this, but basically everything I wrote for Nieuwenhuis applies to Familia. He was a no brainer.)

Now the big names that were left exposed…

Collin McHugh: I personally would have protected him, but you have to keep in mind that he’s done this for exactly one season and he doesn’t have a clear plus offering that would make him a logical choice to be a bullpen arm right now. I don’t think he gets drafted, because pitchers like McHugh generally don’t get selected.

Brad Holt: I won’t be *shocked* if he gets selected in the Rule 5, but I think the control issues will scare people off. He’s not that young either.

Jefry Marte: I think the Mets are banking on a couple things here. (1) Marte has performed the worst of the high upside international guys, and doesn’t really have a position. (2) The AFL wrist injury will make him less desirable, since it is likely to sap some of his power in the short term. I don’t think he gets picked.

I am kind of surprised they didn’t move Satin, Baxter or Rodriguez off the 40-man, though those guys will be first on the chopping block as the Mets sign free agents. Until then, though, #HAILSATIN!

The 2012 New York Mets Top 40 Prospect List: 8-1

Jeffrey Paternostro — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 00:14:38 +0000

8. Cesar Puello, OF

Grade: B-

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 21

Predicted 2012 Assignment: Adv. A St. Lucie

Optimistic Projection: 20/20 player that can handle a major league centerfield

Pessimistic Projection: Tools bust, something like a right-handed Felix Pie.

Notes: I kind of excoriated Puello on my midseason prospect list. I think I had him around 20 and ranted on the podcast about his lack of production at any level of the minors. It’s true that the stats don’t jump off the page at all, but my overall characterization was probably unfair. Ultimately the point of having a farm system is developing homegrown, cost-controlled stars. As much as I like writing about the Darin Gorskis and Josh Satins of the world, I can flip through any team’s C/C+ guys and find similar players. Now, once in a while those C/C+ guys turn into all-stars, but we’re talking about a scant, scant few. Puello has an all-star ceiling. He’s not near that ceiling now, and the range of possible outcomes here is wide, but you squint and you can see a five-tool player here. Not too many of those in that system, and I still have him lower than most other sources. He is going to have to hit at some point and not just tease you with a strong second half, but he really has to rank ahead of Juan Lagares and Cory Vaughn.

7. Michael Fulmer, RHP

Grade: B-

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 19

Predicted 2012 Assignment: Short Season A Brooklyn

Optimistic Projection: #3 Starter

Pessimistic Projection: He’s going to be 19 next year, so any number of bad things can happen.

Notes: So, a philosophical question: Why is Fulmer this much higher than Urbina and Morris? They are basically the same age and will probably be at the same level this year. Well, Urbina and Morris have shown you some of their warts in professional baseball, while Fulmer is considered fairly polished for a prep arm. But let’s be honest, Akeel Morris would have decimated Oklahoma high school hitters this year. Ultimately, we rank Fulmer higher, because he hasn’t done anything to dash our view of his ceiling yet. I think we also have a bias towards the known quantity of high school arms, especially when the international signings haven’t blown us away with their stat line or stuff. It’s one of those quirks of prospect punditry. Now, I don’t doubt that plenty of places will rate Urbina higher than Fulmer, just on ceiling. But I really like Fulmer and think he could even start in Savannah this year. But I am not totally confident in this ranking and it goes beyond simply the TINSTAAPP mantra. I don’t think he’ll be that much higher on the 2013 list, but he could certainly be lower.

6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF

Grade: B-

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 24.7

Predicted 2012 Assignment: AAA Buffalo

Optimistic Projection: Above average MLB outfielder, think a better version of Ryan Church

Pessimistic Projection: 4^th OF with contact and platoon issues

Notes: Like Lutz, Nieuwenhuis was also supremely unlucky this year. If he doesn’t hurt his shoulder making a diving catch in May, he probably takes over in right field after the Beltran trade. Maybe he’s the one that stamps his claim on the position rather than Duda. I don’t think Niuewenhuis would have kept mashing in the International League to the level he did in the first couple months, but he can hit, take a walk, and shows a some decent pop. Plus, he’s probably about 15 runs better in right field than Duda, but things don’t always break your way, and Nieuwenhuis will find himself back in Buffalo this year. He’s not an elite prospect, mind you, there are some issues here. He strikes out a lot and hasn’t shown he can hit lefties. There is also the question of whether or not he is actually a centerfielder in the bigs. That said, the Mets outfield is kind of a mess right now. Nieuwenhuis is the perfect platoon partner for Bay, has a much better glove than Duda, and isn’t even that terrible an option in CF right now. If only he had gotten a full season under his belt at Buffalo. C’est la vie. The floor is pretty low here at least, since just about every team could use a righty masher who can play all 3 OF positions.

5. Jenrry Mejia, RHP

Grade: B-

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 22.5

Predicted 2012 Assignment: AAA Buffalo, sometime around the all-star break

Optimistic Projection: Relief ace or #3 starter

Pessimistic Projection: Reliever with more than occasional injury woes

Notes: It’s easy to forget that Mejia won’t turn 23 until next Fall. It’s less easy to forget how badly he’s been bungled these last few years. He’s never thrown 100 IP in a season. He’s bounced between relieving and starting. He was rushed to the majors without developing his secondary stuff, and he’s gotten hurt the last two years. This past season’s injury of course required Tommy John surgery, and while that’s not particularly daunting anymore, it’s hardly a guarantee that he will return to full strength before 2013. I think Jeurys Familia has passed him as a prospect at this point and is more likely to stick as a starter than Mejia (and I’m only like 60% sold Familia as a starter). But that arm? That arm is electric. Hopefully it will be again.

4. Brandon Nimmo, OF

Grade: B

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 19

Predicted 2012 Assignment: Seems like it’s might be Savannah, which is ambitious.

Optimistic Projection: If all goes right, Jay Bruce.

Pessimistic Projection: Oh, let’s say Alex Escobar since he did already have knee surgery

Notes: Here’s the thing. Basically anyone the Mets picked in the first round this summer would have been a Top 5 prospect. The system is that thin. Sonny Gray? Sure. Jed Bradley? Yeah. Even Kolten Wong. That said, a lot of sources had Nimmo as more a supplemental round talent. I think if the Mets loved him they had to take him here, since I don’t think he gets by the eleventy billion picks the Rays and Jays had. I do wonder if the ‘story’ of Nimmo hasn’t dominated the conversation to the extent that it’s obscured what kind of prospect he actually is. He’s a bit riskier than your average prep guy, because we have less to gauge him against. But the Mets were on him even in early Spring, so I am going to trust the process here. I think the upside is worth the risk. I really do like Sonny Gray, though. Oh well.

3. Jeurys Familia, RHP

Grade: B

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 22.5

Predicted 2012 Assignment: AAA Buffalo

Optimistic Projection: Maybe Edwin Jackson as a starter, Ryan Madson as a reliever

Pessimistic Projection: A decent middle relief arm

Notes: I guess one of the disclaimers I should have included up front is that I am a writer, not a scout. That said, I have had the opportunity to see Familia, and came away suitably impressed. (though I do seem to be the only person that thinks his change-up is pretty good already) But there are concerns here. Familia had a mysterious shoulder ailment of some sort this year that was handled rather oddly by the Mets. His fastball command does seem to leave him as he gets deeper into games, and many pundits think he is a reliever, albeit a good one, in the end. I think he has the offerings to be a good mid-rotation arm, but the stamina and durability questions need to be answered. Criticisms aside, this is a very good arm, and the B grade might be a bit conservative. I just wish I were more certain he was a starter in the end.

2. Zack Wheeler, RHP

Grade: B+

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 21.8

Predicted 2012 Assignment: AA Binghamton

Optimistic Projection: #2 starter that has a couple ace type seasons at his peak

Pessimistic Projection: Say it with me…TINSTAAPP

Notes: If you want to talk ceiling, his tip-top ceiling, I can squint, turn my head sideways and tell you that Wheeler van be an ace. Matt Harvey looks more to me like a workhorse #2. That said, Wheeler’s ceiling isn’t that much higher than Harvey’s. I can certainly see the argument for putting Wheeler #1. He is a full year younger, and his pure stuff is a bit better. Wheeler is just a bit more volatile. He needs to be stretched out a little more and has to refine his fastball command, but he is a borderline elite pitching prospect. TINSTAAPP is a useful shibboleth, but that doesn’t mean you don’t draft, acquire and develop high upside arms. Pitching prospects are just volatile. Wheeler is a bit further away, a bit more raw, and the extra upside here isn’t high enough to mitigate the extra risk. He’s a Top 50 type prospect, and the front office pulled of a coup when they got him for Beltran. I will take him in my system every day of the week, but I just like Harvey a little bit more.

1. Matt Harvey, RHP

Grade: B+

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 23

Predicted 2012 Assignment: AA Binghamton

Optimistic Projection: Durable #2 starter

Pessimistic Projection: League average innings muncher

Notes: Not all that controversial a choice. Wheeler and Harvey are going to be 1-2 on just about everyone’s list. So let me tell you a little bit more about why I favor Harvey. The slider has made some strides, and the fastball is going to be a plus one. That alone should carry him to the majors, even if the change-up and curve don’t get much past serviceable. He had to make some adjustments at AA and did. He threw 135 innings, and generated groundballs while striking out better than a batter per inning. He could get hurt, but you can say that about every pitching prospect. I think the worst case scenario is something like Mike Pelfrey. And as much as we all are fed up with Pelf, he’s still a a major league arm.

The 2012 New York Mets Top 40 Prospect List: 15-9

Jeffrey Paternostro — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 16:18:09 +0000

15. Cory Vaughn, OF

Grade: C+

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 22.9

Predicted 2012 Assignment: Adv. A St. Lucie

Optimistic Projection: Average corner outfielder with some pop

Pessimistic Projection: Star outfielder for the Hanshin Tigers

Notes: I’ve been a bit down on Vaughn since this Spring when I finally got good video of his swing from Mike Newman over at Scouting the Sally and Fangraphs. It has a lot of moving parts, so I questioned if he will be able to catch up to good fastballs or adjust to good breaking stuff. This came to fruition at St. Lucie, where he struggled with contact after having a strong first half with Savannah. Vaughn’s limited to a corner, so he is going to have to hit, though I believe he will be above average with the glove. He’s also not going to be particularly young for St. Lucie this year, so you would like to see him really mash Advanced A pitching. AA is usually the ultimate test for these types of hitters, but Vaughn has to get there first. I do think he will be able to make the adjustments and have a career, but it would be wise to remember he is still more on the raw tools end of the spectrum right now.

14. Juan Lagares, OF

Grade: C+

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 23.0

Predicted 2012 Assignment: AA Binghamton

Optimistic Projection: A poor man’s Marquis Grissom

Pessimistic Projection: 4^thor 5^th OF who PHs a lot because he “makes things happen”

Notes: I have trouble jumping on the Juan Lagares bandwagon. For one, if he was really a centerfielder, he would have actually played more CF than he has. I think he is athletic enough to be a plus defender in a corner, but there just aren’t that many guys who can play CF in the majors and be even average at it. If he’s going to be a corner outfielder, he will have to hit, and boy did he ever this year. However, I don’t really see a change in skill set. He walked about the same as ever, K’d about the same. His ISO went up a bit, but the big difference is, of course, his BABIP. Minor league BABIPs aren’t quite like MLB BABIPs. For one, we don’t have even semi-reliable stringer data for line drive rates. Two, with the lower quality of minor league pitching and defense, we expect more line drives and more balls to drop in for the better hitters. Lagares can clearly hit, but you simply can’t expect a .400 BABIP as he moves forward. If you take a look at his more reasonable .329 BABIP from Savannah in 2010, you see a .290-.300 hitter with little in the way of secondary skills. So like Jordany Valdespin, he is going to have to learn to walk if he wants to have a real career, but unlike Valdespin, he’s not going to have the lower offensive bar of that comes with playing a premium defensive position. I think it would be wise to temper expectations here.

13. Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B

Grade: C+

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 20.4

Predicted 2012 Assignment: Adv. A St. Lucie

Optimistic Projection: Power hitting first baseman

Pessimistic Projection: Brahiam Maldonado

Notes: You could easily drop Rodriguez lower than I did, but he is one of the few guys in this range that has an obvious plus tool. Rodriguez’s power is for real. The .150ish ISO doesn’t look that impressive, but he was 19 this season and Historic Grayson Stadium is death to right-handed power hitters. I expect he will show more pop at St. Lucie this season. He also seemed to be a little unlucky on balls in play. Now he does need to work on his command of the strike zone, there are some questions about his work ethic, and yes, he is aggressively not a third baseman. But if they move him across the diamond and just let him mash, I could see him having a bounce back year. He’s kind of a sleeper again.

12. Phillip Evans, SS

Grade: C+

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 19.6

Predicted 2012 Assignment: Class A Savannah

Optimistic Projection: I believe it was Mike Diaz who said Omar Infante, and that sounds about right to me

Pessimistic Projection: Utility guy

Notes: This is probably going to be the most controversial ranking on my list, but you can pretty much shake the C+ guys up in a coffee can and pour them out however you like, I guess. That’s not to say the ranking is arbitrary, because I actually spent way too much time agonizing over how to rank this section of the list. But I was always fairly sure Evans was going to be up at the top end, because up the middle prospects are just so scarce. Now Evans is unlikely to remain at shortstop all the way to the majors, because MLB shortstop prospects tend to thin out as you move through the minor league system. But I’d say he has a 40% shot, which is better than anyone else in the Mets organization other than maybe Tovar. He is also remarkably polished for a prep guy and in my brief look at him, looked very comfortable and fluid in the field. He’s listed at 5’10,” which appears generous (he’s at least a couple inches shorter than Muno), but he’s not going to have the bat knocked out of his hands. He is an older prep pick, and Jazayerli’s research suggests he might not have the upside of a Brandon Nimmo, but I think the polish is the attraction here anyway. He’s also the player in the Mets system most likely to be comped to David Eckstein at some point in the future. So there’s that.

11. Wilmer Flores, SS

Grade: C+

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 20.7

Predicted 2012 Assignment: AA Binghamton

Optimistic Projection: Some sort of above average major league ballplayer, probably at 3B or LF

Pessimistic Projection: The bat never comes around and Flores tops out at AAA

Notes: Oh, Wilmer Flores, so many tools, so little actual production. It seems like the Mets are going to keep him at shortstop for another year, because, well, Binghamton does have to put nine players out in the field every inning. The endgame here is probably third base, though Flores has played some 2B in the Winter Leagues. Flores can hit, but much like Lagares, hasn’t shown much in the way of secondary skills and is going to turn 21 next summer. That’s not old of course, but nobody is hanging a Miguel Cabrera comp on him anymore either.

10. Jordany Valdespin, SS/2B

Grade: C+

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 24.3

Predicted 2012 Assignment: AAA Buffalo

Optimistic Projection: Howie Kendrick minus the fluky 2011 UZR

Pessimistic Projection: Up the middle bench guy

Notes: Valdespin had a bit of a coming out party this year, hitting 17 home runs and slugging .468 between AA and AAA. He has always had the physical tools to be an all-star, but was dogged by make-up questions and underperformance. He’s played almost as much SS as 2B, but he’s really stretched at short. He could fake it once a week for you, but he’s a second baseman in the end. Fortunately for him, it looks like the Mets will be in the market for one in the proximate future. Valdespin will have to prove the power spike was for real, and like Lagares, he needs to walk at least a little bit more, but he could be the future at 2B.

9. Reese Havens, 2B

Grade: C+

Age (as of Opening Day 2012): 25.5

Predicted 2012 Assignment: AA Binghamton

Optimistic Projection: Todd Walker with closer to average defense.

Pessimistic Projection: Chronically injured AAA guy

Notes: If Valdespin isn’t the second baseman of the future, how about Havens? Well, there are a couple problems here. Well, one problem. Havens simply can’t stay on the field. He has never played more than 96 games in a season, and that was in 2009. The bat is major league caliber, and the injuries haven’t sapped his range yet, but he is a full year older than Valdespin and now behind him in terms of development. I think the total package here is better than Valdespin, but Havens really needs to spend a full year healthy. Sadly, this is now 3 straight years you could write that about him. He rates this high since I still think there is an all-star second baseman ceiling lurking in there, but the window is closing. For whatever it’s worth, Sandy Alderson has mentioned him as a guy that is underrated in the system, so it seems like the front office is still high on him.